Obama second term: What it means for the world
BBC
Now that President Obama has won re-election, what will a second
term mean for US relations with other countries?
MIDDLE EAST
In his victory
speech President Obama told Americans that 10 years of war were ending. But
turbulence in the Middle East means that military action, perhaps even new
wars, will push back on to his agenda.
The Syrian war is leaking into neighbouring countries. Second
term Obama is likely to authorise more support of the Syrian rebels, short of
direct US military intervention.
An even bigger decision awaits on Iran. If by next summer the US and its key allies still
believe that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, despite talks and sanctions,
President Obama will have to decide whether or not to attack Iran's nuclear
sites, or to give Israel a green light to go to war.
America has to build new relations with Arab countries that have
elected Islamist political leaders, and to respond if the Arab uprisings
continue to spread to its allies in the Gulf. Another crisis between Israel and
the Palestinians is overdue. When it comes, Obama will be tempted to revive the
push for peace he abandoned in his first term.
Behind every decision will be the knowledge that, despite its
huge military power, America's political leverage in the Middle East is in
decline. Compliant, reliable, authoritarian allies have been deposed. And a new
generation that sees America as an adversary, not a friend, is being empowered.
EUROPE
Europe will be
waking up this morning with a general sigh of relief. Opinion polls have always
shown President Obama to be more popular than Governor Romney across the
continent - but for most governments, too, continuity in Washington is better
than a changing of the guard. The US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner - as well
as the President himself - has been closely involved in discussions on the
eurozone. The EU is so embroiled in its internal debates on the
eurozone crisis that it doesn't want any external distractions.
The EU has also been working closely with the Obama
administration on a variety of foreign policy issues - Iran in particular. Even
if some of the key personnel change in a second Obama term, the President's
victory means there will be no dramatic change of course for European capitals
to deal with.
CHINA
President
Obama's victory comes just a day before the start of China's once-in-a-decade
leadership change, so for China's leaders the focus for now is firmly at home -
and not across the Pacific.
But during the US presidential campaign, both candidates were
highly critical of China, taking Beijing to task over what they saw as the
country's unfair trade practices. Some of the sting from those accusations
could well linger long after election day. Relations between the two countries
have been strained in recent years - particularly over economic issues.
Beijing is also deeply worried about President Obama's strategic
"pivot" back to Asia. Some officials believe that Washington is
trying to contain the rise of China. It will be these issues that will dominate
arguably the most important diplomatic relationship in the world.
AFGHANISTAN
Much in
Afghanistan is viewed now through the prism of the ending of the US-led
combat mission here. A change in Commander-in Chief was unlikely to
make much of a difference to American policy - there was little difference between
the candidates, aside from Mitt Romney's claim that he would listen more to
generals on the ground.
The question facing President Obama is how quickly do the
remaining troops come home, and how many are left here after 2014. Military
commanders would like a more gradual withdrawal, and a force of 10,000 plus to
remain. But the White House, with a renewed mandate, is likely to press for an
accelerated exit, with fewer American soldiers and marines remaining to assist
Afghan forces, after 2014.
IRAN
Many in Iran
were concerned that a Republican win would mean war, and believe a Barack Obama
victory makes life safer for the people, because the US will move quickly to
set up a new round of talks over Iran's nuclear
ambitions.
However, some Iranian political activists believe that Barack
Obama's victory will give rise to more pressures on Iran. "Barack Obama
enjoys considerable popularity in the international community, which Romney
really lacks, and it will help him reinforce the coalition against Iran and
build up more pressure on the country," said Naser Hadian, a political
professor at Tehran University.
Which would be more acceptable for Iran: Mr Romney and his
Israeli allies imposing a cessation of uranium enrichment or a President Obama
who might give Iran peaceful nuclear rights? From that viewpoint, Iranians are
very happy to see Barack Obama once again in the White House.
PAKISTAN
Pakistan's
military, which controls the country's national security policy, has
traditionally felt more comfortable with Republican governments in the US.
Democratic leaders, on the other hand, have tended to be rather cold towards
it, due to its position civil liberties, democracy and nuclear weapons.
During President Obama's first term, US-Pakistan relations
appeared to have hit rock bottom. The US continued to express concern over
Pakistan's alleged support for militant groups. Pakistan remained angry over
drone strikes on its territory, the killing of Osama bin Laden in a covert US
operation on Pakistani soil, and Nato attacks on some Pakistani border posts.
But Mr Obama's victory means the US' proposed "end
game" in Afghanistan is likely to pick up steam, and from a Pakistani
perspective, take on a clearer shape. Pakistan has been complaining that
American strategy in Afghanistan is vague, and that its own potential role as
an important player in the Afghan peace is being ignored.
Analysts here predict that the Obama victory is likely to
increase pressure on the Pakistani establishment to facilitate US goals in
Afghanistan.
MEXICO AND LATIN AMERICA
There was almost
an audible sigh of relief in Mexico that it was the incumbent president who was
re-elected. There is still a widely held perception in Mexico, and across the
region, that the Republicans do not represent or understand the interests of
Latinos in the US nor, by extension, of their families south of the border. Yet
more undocumented immigrants have been deported under President Obama than
under any other president since the 1950s.
Still, many in Latin America hope that a second Obama
administration will strike up a better relationship with the US's regional
neighbours. It is felt by many that, whether over political relations with
Venezuela, the trade embargo on Cuba or the violent drug war in Mexico, Mr
Obama has not really delivered on his promises on Latin America.
In many ways, though, the vote which will most affect Mexico was
not the race for the White House, but the question of the legalisation of
marijuana in Washington state and Colorado. Many analysts expect the decision
to pass the measure to make a major dent into the massive profits of the
country's powerful drug cartels. Marijuana is their main cash crop, worth an
estimated 6 billion dollars a year through illegal trafficking.
AFRICA
President
Barack Obama made only one, cursory trip to sub-Saharan Africa during his first
term. So how much will change in Mr Obama's second term? That question was,
perhaps understandably, barely mentioned in an election campaign that focused
on pressing domestic issues and the Arab uprisings.
Behind the scenes, American diplomacy will no doubt continue to
be furiously in demand. The start of the second term is likely to be
preoccupied with more of the same: international efforts to remove Al-Qaeda-linked
rebels from the north of Mali - by force or negotiation or both - and efforts
to ensure that Zimbabwe and Kenya avoid repeating the violence that wrecked
their last elections.
So far, there is no sign of a grand "Obama Doctrine"
for Africa - and perhaps that's a good thing, given the diversity and
complexity of the continent. Mr Obama has left it to others to warn about the
dangers posed by an insatiable China, but his second term may give him an
opportunity to move away from the distorting "war on terror"
preoccupations of Mali and Somalia, and focus on the broader issues - trade in
particular - that he raised three years ago in Ghana.
RUSSIA
Russia has received the
news of President Obama's re-election with cautious optimism. Moscow feels it
knows President Obama: it has worked with him the last four years. And, after
all, he is the man who famously launched the re-set in US-Russian relations.
But this will be no "buddy-buddy" relationship.
President Obama may have hit it off with the previous Russian leader, Dmitry
Medvedev (they once went to a burger bar together), but relations with Mr Putin
are proving more challenging. There is concern in Washington at the current
human rights situation in Russia; at the same time, there is suspicion in the
Kremlin that the US is funding and supporting President Putin's opponents.
Add to all of this Moscow's concern at US plans for a missile
defence shield in Europe, Nato's potential further enlargement to the east and
major differences over the conflict in Syria, and it is clear the mutual
distrust is growing. Time for a re-set of the re-set?