Q&A: Advice about swine flu
Cases of swine flu, which has killed people in Mexico, have been confirmed around the world. With experts scrambling to develop a vaccine, there is concern at the potential for a pandemic affecting millions of people.
What is swine flu?
Swine flu is a respiratory disease, caused by influenza type A which infects pigs.
There are many types, and the infection is constantly changing.
Until now it has not normally infected humans, but the latest form clearly does, and can be spread from person to person - probably through coughing and sneezing.
What is new about this type of swine flu?
The World Health Organization has confirmed that at least some of the human cases are a never-before-seen version of the H1N1 strain of influenza type A.
SWINE FLU - THE BASICS
• Symptoms usually similar to seasonal flu - but deaths recorded in Mexico
• It is a new version of the H1N1 strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic
• Too early to say whether it will lead to a pandemic
• Current treatments do work, but there is no vaccine
• Good personal hygiene, such as washing hands, covering nose when sneezing advised
H1N1 is the same strain which causes seasonal outbreaks of flu in humans on a regular basis.
But this latest version of H1N1 is different: it contains genetic material that is typically found in strains of the virus that affect humans, birds and swine.
Flu viruses have the ability to swap genetic components with each other, and it seems likely that the new version of H1N1 resulted from a mixing of different versions of the virus, which may usually affect different species, in the same animal host.
Pigs provide an excellent 'melting pot' for these viruses to mix and match with each other.
How dangerous is it?
Symptoms of swine flu in humans appear to be similar to those produced by standard, seasonal flu.
These include fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, chills and fatigue.
It is worth remembering that seasonal flu often poses a serious threat to public health: each year it kills 250,000 - 500,000 around the world.
So far, most cases of swine flu around the world appear to be mild, albeit with diarrhoea more common than it is with seasonal flu.
But lives have been lost in Mexico, and a single death - of a Mexican child - has been confirmed in the US.
How worried should people be?
When any new strain of flu emerges that acquires the ability to pass from person to person, it is monitored very closely in case it has the potential to spark a global epidemic, or pandemic.
FLU PANDEMICS
• 1918: The Spanish flu pandemic remains the most devastating outbreak of modern times. Caused by a form of the H1N1 strain of flu, it is estimated that up to 40% of the world's population were infected, and more than 50 million people died, with young adults particularly badly affected
• 1957: Asian flu killed two million people. Caused by a human form of the virus, H2N2, combining with a mutated strain found in wild ducks. The impact of the pandemic was minimised by rapid action by health authorities, who identified the virus, and made vaccine available speedily. The elderly were particularly vulnerable
• 1968: An outbreak first detected in Hong Kong, and caused by a strain known as H3N2, killed up to one million people globally, with those over 65 most likely to die
The World Health Organization has warned that swine flu could potentially trigger a global pandemic, and stress that the situation is serious.
However, experts say it is still too early to accurately assess the situation fully.
Currently, they say the world is closer to a flu pandemic than at any point since 1968 - upgrading the threat from four to five on a six-point scale following a meeting on Wednesday.
This means all governments have to mobilise their pandemic flu plans.
Nobody knows the full potential impact of a pandemic, but experts have warned that it could cost millions of lives worldwide. The Spanish flu pandemic, which began in 1918, and was also caused by an H1N1 strain, killed millions of people.
There is hope that, as humans are often exposed to forms of H1N1 through seasonal flu, our immune systems may have something of a head start in fighting infection.
However, the fact that many of the victims are young does point to something unusual. Normal, seasonal flu tends to affect the elderly disproportionately
Is Mexico different?
The death toll in Mexico - where the virus at present seems to producing much more severe symptoms - suggests there may be unusual factors coming into play there.
Some experts have suggested the possibility that other, unrelated viruses may also be circulating in Mexico, making symptoms worse.
This would be unlikely to come into play in the rest of the world.
Alternatively, people infected in Mexico may have sought treatment at a much later stage than those in other countries.
It may also be the case that the form of the virus circulating in Mexico is subtly different to that elsewhere - although that will only be confirmed by laboratory analysis.
The Mexican authorities have downgraded the official death toll from the virus, ordering a new round of more stringent tests.
Can the virus be contained?
The virus appears already to have started to spread around the world, and most experts believe that, in the era of readily available air travel, containment will be extremely difficult.
The World Health Organization says that restricting flights will have little effect. It argues that screening of passengers is also unlikely to have much impact, as symptoms may not be apparent in many infected people.
Can it be treated?
The US authorities say that two drugs commonly used to treat flu, Tamiflu and Relenza, seem to be effective at treating cases that have occurred there so far. However, the drugs must be administered at an early stage to be effective.
Use of these drugs may also make it less likely that infected people will pass the virus on to others.
The UK Government already has a stockpile of Tamiflu,ordered as a precaution against a pandemic.
However, there is concern that if too many people start taking anti-virals as a precaution, it could raise the risk of the virus developing resistance, reducing the drugs' effectiveness.
What about a vaccine?
It is unclear how effective currently available flu vaccines would be at offering protection against the new strain, as it is genetically distinct from other flu strains.
A new bespoke vaccine is being worked on by scientists in the UK and the US, but it may take months to perfect it, and manufacture enough supplies to meet what could be huge demand.
A vaccine was used to protect humans from a version of swine flu in the US in 1976.
However, it caused serious side effects, including an estimated 500 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome. There were more deaths from the vaccine than the outbreak.
What should I do to stay safe?
Anyone with flu-like symptoms who might have been in contact with the swine virus - such as those living or travelling in the areas of Mexico that have been affected - should seek medical advice.
But patients are being asked not to go into GP surgeries in order to minimise the risk of spreading the disease to others. Instead, they should stay at home and call their healthcare provider for advice.
Countries around the world have taken varying measures but are mostly stepping up monitoring and issuing advice about travel to Mexico.
In the UK, the Foreign Office is advising against all but essential travel to Mexico.
What measures can I take to prevent infection?
Avoid close contact with people who appear unwell and who have fever and cough.
General infection control practices and good hygiene can help to reduce transmission of all viruses, including the human swine influenza. This includes covering your nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, using a tissue when possible and disposing of it promptly.
It is also important to wash your hands frequently with soap and water to reduce the spread of the virus from your hands to face or to other people and cleaning hard surfaces like door handles frequently using a normal cleaning product.
If caring for someone with a flu-like illness, a mask may be worn to cover the nose and mouth to reduce the risk of transmission. The UK is looking at increasing its stockpile of masks for healthcare workers for this reason.
In Mexico masks have been handed out to the general public, but experts are sceptical about how useful this is.
May it take some time for a pandemic to strike?
Possibly. The flu virus tends to thrive in cooler conditions, and to struggle in warmer weather.
The initial cases have developed right at the tail end of the winter flu season in the northern hemisphere, so it is possible that the number of infections may only begin to accelerate once the weather turns colder in the autumn.
However, the southern hemisphere is about to enter its winter season and it is possible that the virus will take hold there first.
Is it safe to eat pig meat?
Yes. There is no evidence that swine flu can be transmitted through eating meat from infected animals.
However, it is essential to cook meat properly. A temperature of 70C (158F) would be sure to kill the virus.
Experts are also stressing that this is now a disease which is being passed between people.
The World Organisation for Animal Health said culling pigs, as Egypt has proposed, was therefore "inappropriate" as a measure to stop swine flu spreading.
It added there was no evidence of infection in pigs, nor of humans acquiring infection directly from pigs.
What about bird flu?
The strain of bird flu which has caused scores of human deaths in South East Asia in recent years is a different strain to that responsible for the current outbreak of swine flu.
The latest form of swine flu is a new type of the H1N1 strain, while bird, or avian flu, is H5N1.
Experts fear H5N1 holds the potential to trigger a pandemic because of its ability to mutate rapidly.
However, it has so far remained very much a disease of birds.
Those humans who have been infected have, without exception, worked closely with birds, and cases of human-to-human transmission are extremely rare. There is no suggestion that H5N1 has gained the ability to pass easily from person to person.
sábado, 2 de mayo de 2009
GRAMMAR POINT
VERB TENSE OVERVIEW WITH EXAMPLES
SIMPLE PRESENT
I study English everyday.
Yo estudio inglés cada día.
SIMPLE PAST
Two years ago, I studied English in England.
Hace dos años, yo estudié inglés en Inglaterra.
SIMPLE FUTURE
If you are having problems, I will help you study English.
Si tienes problemas, te ayudaré a estudiar inglés
PRESENT CONTINUOUS
I am studying English now.
Estoy estudiando inglés ahora.
PAST CONTINUOUS
I was studying English when you called yesterday.
Estaba estudiando inglés cuando llamaste ayer.
FUTURE CONTINUOUS
(something will be in progress at a particular moment in the future)
I will be studying English when you arrive tonight.
Estaré estudiando inglés cuando llegues esta noche
PRESENT PERFECT
I have studied English in several different countries.
He estudiado inglés en varios países diferentes.
PAST PERFECT
I had studied a little English before I moved to the U.S.
Había estudiado poco de inglés antes de trasladarme a Estados Unidos.
FUTURE PERFECT
(something will have been done, completed or achieved by a certain time in the future)
I will have studied every tense by the time I finish this course.
Habré estudiado cada frase para cuando termine este curso.
PRESENT PERFECT CONTINUOUS
(focus on activity)
I have been studying English for five years.
He estado estudiando inglés durante cinco años.
PAST PERFECT CONTINUOUS
(emphasize the continuation of an activity)
I had been studying English for five years before I moved to the U.S.
Había estado estudiando inglés durante cinco años antes de trasladarme a Estados Unidos
FUTURE PERFECT CONTINUOUS
(emphasize the continuity of a future achievement)
I will have been studying English for over two hours by the time you arrive.
Habré estado estudiando inglés durante dos horas para cuando tú llegues.
SIMPLE PRESENT
I study English everyday.
Yo estudio inglés cada día.
SIMPLE PAST
Two years ago, I studied English in England.
Hace dos años, yo estudié inglés en Inglaterra.
SIMPLE FUTURE
If you are having problems, I will help you study English.
Si tienes problemas, te ayudaré a estudiar inglés
PRESENT CONTINUOUS
I am studying English now.
Estoy estudiando inglés ahora.
PAST CONTINUOUS
I was studying English when you called yesterday.
Estaba estudiando inglés cuando llamaste ayer.
FUTURE CONTINUOUS
(something will be in progress at a particular moment in the future)
I will be studying English when you arrive tonight.
Estaré estudiando inglés cuando llegues esta noche
PRESENT PERFECT
I have studied English in several different countries.
He estudiado inglés en varios países diferentes.
PAST PERFECT
I had studied a little English before I moved to the U.S.
Había estudiado poco de inglés antes de trasladarme a Estados Unidos.
FUTURE PERFECT
(something will have been done, completed or achieved by a certain time in the future)
I will have studied every tense by the time I finish this course.
Habré estudiado cada frase para cuando termine este curso.
PRESENT PERFECT CONTINUOUS
(focus on activity)
I have been studying English for five years.
He estado estudiando inglés durante cinco años.
PAST PERFECT CONTINUOUS
(emphasize the continuation of an activity)
I had been studying English for five years before I moved to the U.S.
Había estado estudiando inglés durante cinco años antes de trasladarme a Estados Unidos
FUTURE PERFECT CONTINUOUS
(emphasize the continuity of a future achievement)
I will have been studying English for over two hours by the time you arrive.
Habré estado estudiando inglés durante dos horas para cuando tú llegues.
FINANCE & ECONOMICS
Spanish companies in Latin America
A good bet?
Apr 30th 2009 | From The Economist
Investments in Latin America offer protection against Spain’s slowdown
EUROPE was a grim place during the hard economic and political times of the 17th century. But the mood in Latin America was different, as Ruggiero Romano, a historian, has observed. While Europe’s population, consumption and production fell, Spain’s colonies thrived.
Spanish companies that have been doing a lot of business in Latin America hope it will buck the trend this time, too. It is so far proving more resilient to the global financial crisis than Spain, where a decade-long boom has come to a halt. Spanish unemployment has just hit 17%, more than twice the European average. The IMF expects Spain’s GDP to contract by 3% this year and 0.7% in 2010. Economic output in Latin America, by contrast, is expected to shrink less and recover sooner. The region’s institutional strength should shield it from the worst of the crisis, says Alfredo Arahuetes, dean of the Universidad Pontificia Comillas de Madrid.
Telefónica, a Spanish telecoms firm and the biggest investor in the region, says Latin America will be its engine of growth in the next few years. Spanish utilities are also optimistic. “The perception is that Latin American operations are once again becoming a source of strength,” says Sergi Aranda, head of Latin American operations at Gas Natural, a Spanish utility.
This is a turn-up for the books. From Mexico’s “tequila crisis” in 1994 to Argentina’s collapse in 2001, Spanish companies have been on a roller-coaster ride in the region. After nearly two decades of frenzied activity, Spain is now the biggest foreign investor in the region after America. The first wave of serious interest began in 1993, after the establishment of the single European market. Facing increasing competition and the risk of hostile bids from larger rivals in Europe, Spanish firms went to Latin America in search of profits and greater scale.
This coincided with a wave of liberalisation in the region. Spurred on by cultural affinity and a shared language, Spanish firms collectively spent an average of $9.7 billion a year from 1993 to 2000, mostly in Argentina, Brazil and Chile, says Mr Arahuetes. Subsequent crises and some populist policies dampened enthusiasm. Many Spanish companies made big acquisitions in Europe and America to balance their exposure to Latin America. Even so, they continued to invest in Latin America, albeit at a less frenetic pace.
The numbers are eye-popping. Six firms undertook 95% of the investment by Spanish companies in Latin America: Telefónica, Repsol, Santander, BBVA, Endesa and Iberdrola, according to a study by Enrique Alberola, a senior economist at the Bank of Spain. Gas Natural and Union Fenosa also made big investments. The cumulative gross investment by the top five companies was $170 billion. All this generated $28.9 billion of operating profit in 2008. For the six biggest Spanish investors, Latin America accounted for a good chunk (16-51%) of their profits.
Telefónica has made the biggest bet, spending a total of $100 billion. Analysts believe Latin American assets account for about a third of its $147 billion enterprise value, including debt. Even taking into account the dividends and management fees repatriated over the years, Telefónica’s Latin American investments are worth just 60% of their original cost. But telecoms valuations have come down across the board. And Telefónica’s performance in Latin America has markedly improved in the past six quarters, notes Jonathan Dann, an analyst at JPMorgan. It has gained or held market share in all big markets except Colombia. Investors appear to back its strategy: its shares have outperformed those of its rivals in the past ten years, and since the credit crunch hit in August 2007.
Not all investments have the same potential. Repsol learnt this the hard way when it bought YPF, formerly Argentina’s state-owned oil firm, doubling the size of the company overnight. It paid $15 billion in 1999, only to see the country’s economy go into free fall two years later. YPF missed out on the oil-price boom because price controls forced it to sell at below-market rates. Its reserves are dwindling. Repsol sold 15% of YPF last year to a local businessman, with a loan from Repsol itself. Even so, YPF has supplied an average of over $1.3 billion in annual dividends to Repsol since 1999. And Repsol’s Latin American fortunes are turning: three of the world’s five largest oil-and-gas discoveries last year were by Repsol in Brazil, Peru and Bolivia.
Latin America is also important for Santander and BBVA, Spain’s two biggest banks. The region accounted for 43% of Santander’s 2008 operating profit and over half of BBVA’s. Although both banks were burnt by Argentina’s collapse in 2001, BBVA went on to buy out the other shareholders of its Mexican subsidiary in 2004. That bet paid off: the division created $2.8 billion in net income in 2008, against a total investment of $8.35 billion. But the Mexican economy has contracted sharply. A slowdown in Mexican loans in the first three months of the year has hit BBVA’s profits in the region. Even so, Mexico and Brazil still offer greater potential than Spain. Santander has strengthened its presence in Brazil, where it bought Banco Real in the carve-up of ABN AMRO in 2007.
Latin America is not a perfect hedge for Spanish companies. Recent devaluations of some Latin American currencies have dented their profits. But if the region manages to recover quickly from recession, it will provide further vindication of their decision to invest so far from home.
A good bet?
Apr 30th 2009 | From The Economist
Investments in Latin America offer protection against Spain’s slowdown
EUROPE was a grim place during the hard economic and political times of the 17th century. But the mood in Latin America was different, as Ruggiero Romano, a historian, has observed. While Europe’s population, consumption and production fell, Spain’s colonies thrived.
Spanish companies that have been doing a lot of business in Latin America hope it will buck the trend this time, too. It is so far proving more resilient to the global financial crisis than Spain, where a decade-long boom has come to a halt. Spanish unemployment has just hit 17%, more than twice the European average. The IMF expects Spain’s GDP to contract by 3% this year and 0.7% in 2010. Economic output in Latin America, by contrast, is expected to shrink less and recover sooner. The region’s institutional strength should shield it from the worst of the crisis, says Alfredo Arahuetes, dean of the Universidad Pontificia Comillas de Madrid.
Telefónica, a Spanish telecoms firm and the biggest investor in the region, says Latin America will be its engine of growth in the next few years. Spanish utilities are also optimistic. “The perception is that Latin American operations are once again becoming a source of strength,” says Sergi Aranda, head of Latin American operations at Gas Natural, a Spanish utility.
This is a turn-up for the books. From Mexico’s “tequila crisis” in 1994 to Argentina’s collapse in 2001, Spanish companies have been on a roller-coaster ride in the region. After nearly two decades of frenzied activity, Spain is now the biggest foreign investor in the region after America. The first wave of serious interest began in 1993, after the establishment of the single European market. Facing increasing competition and the risk of hostile bids from larger rivals in Europe, Spanish firms went to Latin America in search of profits and greater scale.
This coincided with a wave of liberalisation in the region. Spurred on by cultural affinity and a shared language, Spanish firms collectively spent an average of $9.7 billion a year from 1993 to 2000, mostly in Argentina, Brazil and Chile, says Mr Arahuetes. Subsequent crises and some populist policies dampened enthusiasm. Many Spanish companies made big acquisitions in Europe and America to balance their exposure to Latin America. Even so, they continued to invest in Latin America, albeit at a less frenetic pace.
The numbers are eye-popping. Six firms undertook 95% of the investment by Spanish companies in Latin America: Telefónica, Repsol, Santander, BBVA, Endesa and Iberdrola, according to a study by Enrique Alberola, a senior economist at the Bank of Spain. Gas Natural and Union Fenosa also made big investments. The cumulative gross investment by the top five companies was $170 billion. All this generated $28.9 billion of operating profit in 2008. For the six biggest Spanish investors, Latin America accounted for a good chunk (16-51%) of their profits.
Telefónica has made the biggest bet, spending a total of $100 billion. Analysts believe Latin American assets account for about a third of its $147 billion enterprise value, including debt. Even taking into account the dividends and management fees repatriated over the years, Telefónica’s Latin American investments are worth just 60% of their original cost. But telecoms valuations have come down across the board. And Telefónica’s performance in Latin America has markedly improved in the past six quarters, notes Jonathan Dann, an analyst at JPMorgan. It has gained or held market share in all big markets except Colombia. Investors appear to back its strategy: its shares have outperformed those of its rivals in the past ten years, and since the credit crunch hit in August 2007.
Not all investments have the same potential. Repsol learnt this the hard way when it bought YPF, formerly Argentina’s state-owned oil firm, doubling the size of the company overnight. It paid $15 billion in 1999, only to see the country’s economy go into free fall two years later. YPF missed out on the oil-price boom because price controls forced it to sell at below-market rates. Its reserves are dwindling. Repsol sold 15% of YPF last year to a local businessman, with a loan from Repsol itself. Even so, YPF has supplied an average of over $1.3 billion in annual dividends to Repsol since 1999. And Repsol’s Latin American fortunes are turning: three of the world’s five largest oil-and-gas discoveries last year were by Repsol in Brazil, Peru and Bolivia.
Latin America is also important for Santander and BBVA, Spain’s two biggest banks. The region accounted for 43% of Santander’s 2008 operating profit and over half of BBVA’s. Although both banks were burnt by Argentina’s collapse in 2001, BBVA went on to buy out the other shareholders of its Mexican subsidiary in 2004. That bet paid off: the division created $2.8 billion in net income in 2008, against a total investment of $8.35 billion. But the Mexican economy has contracted sharply. A slowdown in Mexican loans in the first three months of the year has hit BBVA’s profits in the region. Even so, Mexico and Brazil still offer greater potential than Spain. Santander has strengthened its presence in Brazil, where it bought Banco Real in the carve-up of ABN AMRO in 2007.
Latin America is not a perfect hedge for Spanish companies. Recent devaluations of some Latin American currencies have dented their profits. But if the region manages to recover quickly from recession, it will provide further vindication of their decision to invest so far from home.
PUZZLE
A woman had two sons who were born on the same hour of the same day of the same year, but they were not twins. How can this be?
FAMOUS QUOTATIONS
"If you want anything said, ask a man. If you want anything done, ask a woman" (Margaret Thatcher)